Economic Growth In The Region
In 2017, the Eurozone economy has enjoyed its best year of growth in a decade. Namely, the actual GDP has grown by 2,6% in Q3.
According to the World Bank’s assessment, the positive trend in Eurozone is expected to continue in the current year, but at a more moderate rate. The same assessment indicates that in Eurozone, the actual GDP grew by 2,4% in 2017 and the forecast for 2018 is 2,1%.
Economic recovery of Ukraine in 2017 was quite slow. According to the World Bank’s assessment, in 2017, economic performance in Ukraine increased only by 2%. But for 2018, 3,5% growth of actual GDP is forecasted, with the background of local currency depreciation, double digit increase of prices is noted – average inflation rate is approximately 15%.
By the preliminary assessment, Turkey’s economy has shown the record of growth by 6,7% in 2017. According to the World Bank’s assessment, in 2018, economic growth in Turkey is going to be relatively modest. As a result of GEL depreciation, average growth rate of consumer prices in 2017 was about 11%.
As to Russia, according to the World Bank’s assessment, in 2017-2018, the rate of actual GDP growth is 1,7%.
World Bank’s estimates for average growth of actual GDP in Armenia in 2017-2018 are within 3,7%.
With the influence of the oil price drop shock in 2014-2016, economy of Azerbaijan kept on diminishing in 2017. Azerbaijan is the only country in the region suffering from economic stagnation. As the World Bank assessed, in 2017, economy in Azerbaijan has diminished by 1,4%, however, in 2018, 0,9% growth is expected. Inflation rate in Azerbaijan in 2017 was still quite high – average of 13%.
As to Georgia, National Bank of Georgia forecasts average of 4,5% economic growth in Georgia. Besides, according to NBG’s forecast, in the mid-term – namely in the first half of the current year – average inflation rate will be within the limits of 3,5% and as from the second half of the year it will keep on decreasing and will stabilize within the target rate of 3%.