This Year EBRD Forecasts 4.5% Economic Growth in Georgia

EBRD notes that last year the country's economy grew by 5%, and in the first half of this year the growth was up 5.4%. 

EBRD is forecasting 4.5% economic growth in Georgia this year. The forecast for European Bank for Reconstruction and Development remains unchanged for 2018 as well as 2019 (4.5%).

EBRD notes that last year the country's economy grew by 5%, and in the first half of this year the growth was up 5.4%. However, growth in the first 9 months of the year slowed down to 4.8%, and in August only GDP grew by 2%. The Bank notes that the flow of tourists and the FDI, despite annual reductions, has a positive impact on economic growth.

EBRD suggests that last year, the country’s economy grew by 5%, and during the first half of 2018 the growth reached 5.4%. However, in the first 9 months of this year the growth slowed down to 4.8%, and in August GDP only grew by 2%. The bank notes that the flow of tourism has a positive impact on economic growth and FDI, despite the annual decrease.

With regards to the national currency, EBRD emphasizes in its report that during the first 10 months of this year the Georgian Lari has remained stable, despite some volatilities during certain periods.

As for the countries of the region, in eastern Europe and the Caucasus region, EBRD reduced its forecast for economic growth for Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Armenia: Growth Forecast - 5.5% (Change + 2%)

Azerbaijan: Growth forecast - 1.5% (change -1%)

Belarus: Growth Forecast - 3% (Change 0%)

Moldova: Growth Forecast - 4% (Change + 0.5%)

Ukraine: Growth Forecast - 3.5% (Change + 0.5%)

Turkey: Growth Forecast - 3.6% (Change -0.8%)

Russia: Growth Forecast - 1.5% (Change 0%).

With regards to the Central Asia region, the 2018 forecast is as follows:

Kazakhstan - 4%

Kyrgyzstan - 2.7%

Tajikistan - 6.1%

Turkmenistan - 6.2%

Uzbekistan - 5%

Mongolia - 6.1%

In both regions, EBRD gives the highest forecast for 2019 in Mongolia with 6% growth. And the slowest growth was forecasted for Turkey with just 1% growth. The bank suggests that in almost all countries where EBRD is investing the economic situation is stable, the exception being Turkey. The Turkish Lira experienced record high depreciated and as a result, worsened investor's expectations and increased interest rates. In total, compared to the previous forecast, on average, EBRD’s expects 0.1% decrease in growth in 38 economies this year, and for next year 0.6%. The bank explains this with slowing down of the Turkish economy. In 2018, the average growth forecast is 3.2% and for next year 2.6% in up to 40 countries.

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