23 ივნისს გაერთიანებული სამეფოს დემოკრატიამ ხმათა უმრავლესობით ევროკავშირის დატოვებას დაუჭირა მხარი. გადაწყვეტილების გამოცხადებიდან პირველივე საათებში თანამდებობიდან გადადგა პრემიერი კამერონი, ბრიტანულმა ეკონომიკამ სერიოზული ზარალი იწვნია, შოტლანდიიდან და ჩრდილოეთ ირლანდიიდან ხელახლა გაიჟღერა ხმებმა დიდი ბრიტანეთიდან გამოყოფის თაობაზე, ხოლო ინგლისის ქუჩებში რასისტული და ქსენოფობიური ხასიათის ინციდენტებმა იმატა. ამ ფონზე, გასაკვირი სულაც არ არის, რომ მსოფლიოს დიდმა ნაწილმა რეფერენდუმის შედეგები აპოკალიფსურ ფერებში აღიქვა. ზოგიერთმა კომენტატორმა Brexit-ი ევროპული ღირებულებებისა და წესრიგის დასასრულად გამოაცხადა, სხვებმა კი ევროპის გარდაუვალ რღვევასა და მისი გეოპოლიტიკური ლანდშაფტის ცვლილებაზე გაამახვილეს ყურადღება. მაგრამ არის კი Brexit-ი დასავლური წესრიგისა და ევროპის დასასრული?
ევროპულ სახელმწიფოთა გაერთიანების იდეას ვრცელი ისტორია აქვს. სოლიდარობისა და მშვიდობის იდეალებით შთაგონებული რესპუბლიკანური, ფედერალისტური, სოციალისტური და პროგრესული აზრი ლამის ყოველთვის ემხრობოდა გარკვეული ფორმის ევროპული კავშირის შექმნას. იდეის მხარდამჭერთა შორის იყვნენ კანტი, სენ- სიმონი, მაძინი, ჰიუგო, გარიბალდი და ბაკუნინი. ევროპას გარკვეული საბაჟო თუ პოლიტიკური ერთობა პრაქტიკაშიც გამოეცადა. სწორედ ამისაკენ გადადგმული ნაბიჯი იყო 1815 წელს შექმნილი გერმანიის საბაჟო გაერთიანება (Zollverein), ისევე როგორც გერმანული დამოუკიდებელი სუვერენული ერთეულების მიერ 1834 წელს ჩამოყალიბებული გერმანიის კონფედერაცია.
თუმცა ევროპული პოლიტიკური გაერთიანების განვითარებას მეორე მსოფლიო ომის პოლიტიკურად და ეკონომიკურად კატასტროფულმა შედეგებმა ახლებური მნიშვნელობა შესძინა. ომის ჯერ კიდევ ცხელ მახსოვრობას მალევე დაერთო ცივი ომის ნიშნებიც – უპირველეს ყოვლისა, 1948 წლის პრაღის გადატრიალება და ბერლინის ბლოკადა. ამ მოვლენებმა დასავლეთი ახალი გეოპოლიტიკური რეალობისა და ახალი საფრთხეების მიმართ ახლებურად გამოაფხიზლა. სწორედ ამ ვითარებაში, 1949 წლის აპრილში დაიბადა ჩრდილოატლანტიკური ალიანსი (NATO) – სამხედრო გაერთიანება, რომელიც ამიერიდან ევროპული პოლიტიკური ინტეგრაციის უსაფრთხოების გარანტორი გახდებოდა.
საკუთრივ პოლიტიკური ინტეგრაცია 1950 წლის 9 მაისს გამოცემული “შუმანის დეკლარაციით” დაიწყო, რომელმაც ქვანახშირისა და ფოლადის გაერთიანების იდეა წამოჭრა. მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ გაერთიანება ეკონომიკურ ხასიათს ატარებდა, მისი უმთავრესი მიზანი პოლიტიკური იყო. ეკონომიკური შეთანხმება მიზნად ისახავდა ისეთი პოლიტიკური წყობის შექმნას, რომელიც ექვს ხელმომწერ სახელმწიფოს — საფრანგეთს, დასავლეთ გერმანიას, ბელგიას, ნიდერლანდებსა და ლუქსემბურგს – ურთიერთდამოკიდებულს გახდიდა. ამ გზით, ახალი შეთანხმება უნდა გამხდარიყო გარანტი იმისა, რომ არც ერთ დიდ კონტინენტურ სახელმწიფოს, არც გერმანიას და არც საფრანგეთს, ერთიმეორისაგან დამოუკიდებლად არ ექნებოდა იარაღის წარმოებისათვის საჭირო საკმარისი ოდენობით ნედლი მასალა. ინტეგრაციის პირველივე მცდელობა წარმატებული აღმოჩნდა და შემდგომ ათწლეულებში დამატებითი ევროპული ინტეგრაციაც გამოიწვია, რომელიც 1992 წელს, ეტაპობრივი პოლიტიკური და ეკონომიკური ინტეგრაციის შედეგად, ევროპული კავშირის დაბადებით დაგვირგვინდა.
ამდენად, პოლიტიკური გაგებით, მეოცე საუკუნის ევროპა იმთავითვე ორი განსხვავებული, თუმცა მჭიდროდ შეკავშირებული რამ იყო – ერთი მხრივ, პოლიტიკური ინტეგრაციის ეტაპობრივი პროექტი, მეორე მხრივ კი ანგლოამერიკული გეოპოლიტიკური წესრიგის პლაცდარმი, რომლის წარმატებულობის გარანტორიც თავიდანვე და შემდგომშიც NATO იქნებოდა. სწორედ NATO ჩაერთო ბალკანეთის ომში 1990-იანებში, დღემდე აწარმოებს ავღანეთის მისიას და პოტენციური რუსული აგრესიისაგან იცავს ევროპის აღმოსავლეთ სასაზღვრო ზოლს ბალტიისპირეთში.
ნიშანდობლივია, რომ გაერთიანებული სამეფო დაფუძნების მომენტიდან მოყოლებული იყო NATO-ს დამფუძნებელი წევრი, მაგრამ ევროპული თანამეგობრობის წევრი მხოლოდ 1973 წელს გახდა. ომისშემდგომ დასავლეთში ბრიტანეთი ანგლოამერიკული გეოპოლიტიკური წესრიგის აშშ-ის შემდეგ რიგით მეორე ძალა იყო, მაგრამ იგი არასდროს არ ყოფილა პოლიტიკური ინტეგრაციის პროექტის გულმხურვალე მონაწილე. ბრიტანეთი არასდროს არ ემხრობოდა დამატებით პოლიტიკურ ინტეგრაციას და პირიქით, მუდმივად უფრთხოდა ყველა ისეთ ინოვაციას, რომელიც მის ტრადიციულ საპარლამენტო სუვერენულობას დააკნინებდა. სწორედ ამიტომ, ბრიტანეთი არასდროს არ გაწევრიანებულა არც შენგენის ზონაში და არც საერთო მონეტარულ კავშირში. შესაბამისად, რეფერენდუმის შედეგით გამოწვეული სიტუაცია არ წარმოადგენს წყვეტას ბრიტანულ-ევროპული ურთიერთობების ისტორიული ლოგიკიდან. ბრიტანეთმა საბოლოო უარი განაცხადა პოლიტიკურ ინტეგრაციაზე, რომელსაც ყოველთვის უფრთხოდა, NATO-ს ენერგიულ წევრად კი რეფერენდუმის შემდეგაც რჩება. ამას მოწმობს არა მარტო Brexit-ის შემდეგ გაკეთებული ოფიციალური განცხადებები, არამედ პოლიტიკური პრაქტიკაც – ბრიტანეთი აღმოსავლეთის საზღვრის გასამყარებლად ესტონეთში 500, პოლონეთში კი 150 დამატებით ჯარისკაცს მიავლენს. ამასთანავე, ამიერიდან 3,000 ბრიტანელი სამხედრო “სასწრაფო მზაობის” რეჟიმში გადავა. აღმოსავლეთ ევროპისა და რუსეთის საზღვარზე წარმოშობილი პოტენციური საჭიროების შემთხვევაში, ბრიტანელი სამხედროები სასწრაფო რეჟიმში იქნებიან გადატყორცნილი ევროპის საზღვრის დასაცავად. რეფერენდუმის შემდეგ გაჟღერებული ამ გადაწყვეტილებით, გაერთიანებული სამეფო ხაზს უსვამს მისი გეოპოლიტიკური პრეფერენციების ურყეობასა და უცვლელობას.
Brexit-ი ნამდვილად მიაყენებს დარტყმას საერთო ევროპული უსაფრთხოების ინფრასტრუქტურისა და საერთო ევროპული თავდაცვის პოლიტიკის განვითარებას. მაგრამ სხვა მხრივ ბრიტანეთის ევროკავშირიდან გასვლა ამ ეტაპზე უსაფრთხოების თვალსაზრისით სერიოზულ ცვლილებებს არ გულისხმობს. მომავალ დროში ბრიტანეთს მოუწევს უსაფრთხოების საკითხებზე ევროპულ სახელმწიფოებთან ახლებური კავშირების გაბმა, ყველაფერი კი იმაზე იქნება დამოკიდებული, თუ რა სახის შეთანხმებას მიაღწევს ორი მხარე. თუმცა საბოლოოდ ეს ტექნიკური და ინფრასტრუქტურული საკითხებია, მაგრამ არა გეოპოლიტიკური მნიშვნელობის ძვრები. ამ თვალსაზრისით, აუცილებელია გავიხსენოთ, რომ გაერთიანებული სამეფოს ყველა მნიშვნელოვანი პოზიცია, მათ შორის მისი ისტორიული სკეპტიციზმი რუსეთის მიმართ, ევროპულ თანამეგობრობაში გაწევრებამდე და მისგან დამოუკიდებლად ჩამოყალიბდა.
ამასთანავე, ბრიტანეთი არის და იქნება ევროპული იდეალების თანამოზიარე და მსახური. Brexit-ი არ ყოფილა რეფერენდუმი არც დასავლელობისა და არც ევროპული იდეის შესახებ. მსგავსად ევროპულ საკითხზე გამართული 1975 წლის რეფერენდუმისა, 2016 წლის რეფერენდუმიც სრულიად პრაგმატული ხასიათის იყო. რეფერენდუმს კითხვის ნიშნის ქვეშ არ დაუყენებია არც ბრიტანელთა ევროპელობა და არც ზოგადად ევროპული ღირებულებები. რეფერენდუმი კითხვის ქვეშ სრულიად კონკრეტულ საკითხებს აყენებდა – კერძოდ, ბრიტანეთის ევროკავშირში წევრობის პოლიტიკურ და ეკონომიკურ სარგებელს. მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ ქსენოფობიამაც და შიშის პოლიტიკამაც უდავოდ შეუწყო ხელი ბრიტანული დემოკრატიის გადაწყვეტილებას, ეს არ ყოფილა Brexit-ის მთავარი მამოძრავებელი ძალა. როგორც Financial Times-ის მიერ შეგროვებული ევროკავშირის წევრობის თაობაზე 2010-15 წლებში ჩატარებული სოციოლოგიური გამოკითხვები ადასტურებს, 2015 წლის მიგრაციის კრიზისამდეც და ტერაქტების ბოლო სერიამდე კარგა ხნით ადრე ბრიტანელთა მოზრდილი ნაწილი უკვე ემხრობოდა ევროკავშირის დატოვებას.
მრავალთა აზრით, ბრიტანული რეფერენდუმის შედეგი დომინოს პრინციპით ევროკავშირის დაშლასაც გამოიწვევდა. Brexit-მა მართლაც იქონია დომინოსებური ეფექტი ევროპულ სახელმწიფოთა დემოკრატიულ აზრზე, თუმცა შიშნარევი მოლოდინისაგან განსხვავებით, ეს სრულიად სხვა სახის დომინოს ეფექტი აღმოჩნდა. როგორც Brexit-ის შემდეგ ევროპის მასშტაბით ჩატარებული სოციოლოგიური გამოკითხვები აჩვენებს, კავშირიდან გამოყოფის სურვილის გაძლიერების ნაცვლად, Brexit-ის შემდეგ პირიქით, ევროკავშირის მხარდამჭერი ენერგია გაძლიერდა. მაგალითად, დანიაში ევროკავშირის მომხრეთა რაოდენობა 59.8%-იდან 69%-მდე გაიზარდა. იგივე მოხდა ფინეთშიც, სადაც ევროკავშირის მომხრეთა რაოდენობა მარტში 56% იყო, დღეს კი 68%-ია. ევროპული პროექტის მხარდამჭერთა რაოდენობამ იმატა შვედეთშიც, სადაც ერთი თვის წინ მათი რაოდენობა 49% იყო, Brexit-ის შემდეგ კი 52%-ია.
და პირიქით, კლება იწყო ევროკავშირის დატოვების მხარდამჭერთა რაოდენობამ. დანიაში დღეს მხოლოდ 32%-ს სურს ევროკავშირის წევრობაზე რეფერენდუმის გამართვა, მაშინ როდესაც Brexit-მდე 40%-ს სურდა. ხოლო იტალიაში, სადაც დარჩენის მომხრეთა რაოდენობამ 66%-ს მიაღწია, გასვლის მხარდამჭერთა რაოდენობა 26%-მდე დაეცა. “ძველი ევროპისგან” განსხვავებით, ევროსკეპტიციზმი კვლავ ძლიერ ენერგიას წარმოადგენს “ვიშეგრადის ოთხეულში” – ჩეხეთის რესპუბლიკა, უნგრეთი, პოლონეთი და სლოვაკეთი. თუმცა ვიშეგრადის სახელმწიფოთა ევროსკეპტიციზმს რეგიონისთვის სპეციფიკური პოლიტიკური და ეკონომიკური ახსნა გააჩნია და ის Brexit-მდე კარგა ხნით ადრეც არსებობდა.
მაშასადამე, ამჟამად რეფერენდუმის შემდგომი საერთო სურათი არ არის არც განსაკუთრებული და არც აპოკალიფსური. Brexit-ი მუდამ ევროსკეპტიკურად განწყობილი ბრიტანეთის მიერ ევროპული პოლიტიკური ინტეგრაციის მიმართ განცხადებული საბოლოო უარია. მაგრამ ის არც დასავლურ იდეალს უცხადებს უარს, არც დასავლურ ფასეულობებს და არც დასავლურ გეოპოლიტიკურ წესრიგს – ყველა მათგანს ბრიტანეთი ევროპული თანამეგობრობის წევრობის გარეშეც აქტიურად ემსახურებოდა.
ევროპულ კავშირს წინ ისტორიულად მნიშვნელოვანი წლები და რთული რეფორმისტული გამოწვევები ელის. თუმცა, როგორც უძველესი დროიდან იტყოდნენ ხოლმე, “კრიზისი შესაძლებლობაა”. თუკი ევროპა მოახერხებს დღევანდელი კრიზისის ახალ შესაძლებლობად ქცევას, Brexit-ი ისტორიას არათუ მის ისტორიულ დასასრულად, არამედ მის მხსნელ მოვლენად დარჩება.
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