რუსეთის უკრაინაში შეჭრა რამდენიმე დღეში ევროპაში ერთ-ერთ ყველაზე დიდ სამხედრო კონფლიქტში გადაიზარდა, რაც კი მეორე მსოფლიო ომის შემდეგ კონტინენტზე მომხდარა. გადაჭრით ვერ შევძლებთ თქმას, თუ ვინ იქნება ამ ბრძოლაში გამარჯვებული, ან რამდენ ხანს გასტანს იგი, თუმცა ომის შესახებ აკადემიური კვლევა გვიქმნის გარკვეულ წარმოდგენას იმაზე, თუ როგორ შეიძლება განვითარდეს კონფლიქტი უკრაინაში. აღნიშნულ საკითხზე The Conversation-ში გამოქვეყნებულ სტატიაშია საუბარი, რომლის ავტორებიც ზალცბურგის უნივერსიტეტში მომუშავე დაგლას ატკინსონი და ნოტინგემის უნივერსიტეტში მომუშავე კევინ ფაჰი არიან.
კონკურენტი სახელმწიფოები ხშირ შემთხვევაში ომის ნაცვლად, რომელიც ძალიან ძვირი ჯდება, უთანხმოების მოგვარების მშვიდობიან გზას მიმართავენ. თუმცა, ზოგჯერ ეს შეუძლებელია და ინტერესთა კონფლიქტი სამხედრო დაპირისპირებაში გადაიზრდება ხოლმე.
კვლევის მიხედვით, ომი, როგორც წესი, სამი პრობლემის შედეგია. პირველი, ზოგჯერ სახელმწიფოებს არ აქვთ საკმარისი ინფორმაცია, რომ საკუთარი წარმატების ალბათობა შეაფასონ. მეორე, შესაძლოა, მხარეები არ ენდობოდნენ ერთმანეთს და ფიქრობდნენ, რომ მათ შორის დადებული შეთანხმება დაირღვევა. დაბოლოს, ზოგჯერ ქვეყნები საკამათო საკითხის მოლაპარაკებების გზით მოგვარებას ვერ ახერხებენ, განსაკუთრებით მაშინ, როცა საქმე ეხება ეთნიკურ, რელიგიურ ან იდეოლოგიურ დაძაბულობას.
სტატიის ავტორების აზრით, თუ ზემოხსენებულ მიდგომას გავიზიარებთ, ომი დასრულდება მაშინ, როდესაც კონფლიქტის გამომწვევი პრობლემა ბრძოლის ველზე მოგვარდება. ის კი, თუ რამდენ ხანს გაგრძელდება ბრძოლა და რა ფორმას მიიღებს იგი, პრობლემის მასშტაბურობასა და ტიპზეა დამოკიდებული.
ომში წარმატებას ძირითადად ორი ფაქტორი განაპირობებს: ბრძოლისუნარიანობა და ხარჯებისათვის მზადყოფნა. აშკარაა, რომ რუსეთის არმია იარაღის მარაგითა და ცოცხალი ძალით უკრაინას აღემატება, თუმცა, როგორც ომის დაწყებიდან მალევე გამოჩნდა, უკრაინელი ხალხი ბევრად უფრო მზად აღმოჩნდა ბრძოლისთვის, ვიდრე ამას მათგან ელოდნენ.
ახლა რუსეთმა იცის, რომ უკრაინელი ხალხის ბრძოლისუნარიანობა სწორად ვერ შეაფასა. თუმცა, მეორე მხრივ, რუსეთი ფიქრობს, რომ ხელსაყრელი შეთანხმების მისაღწევად უკრაინა საკუთარ შესაძლებლობებს გადაჭარბებულად წარმოაჩენს. ეს კი იმაზე მიანიშნებს, რომ მხარეებს საინფორმაციო პრობლემის გადაჭრა გაუჭირდებათ. ასეთ შემთხვევაში, ქვეყნებს შორის სამხედრო კონფლიქტი იქამდე არ სრულდება, სანამ ერთი მხარე არ დანებდება.
ომის დროს დაპირისპირებული ქვეყნების ლიდერებისთვის, მათი მმართველობის სტილის მიუხედავად, ხალხის ჯგუფის ან კოალიციის მხარდაჭერა უმნიშვნელოვანესია. ვლადიმირ პუტინი თავის გადასარჩენად ოლიგარქებზე, რუსული მაფიის წარმომადგენლებსა და სამხედროებზეა დამოკიდებული. დასავლეთის მიერ დაწესებული სანქციების ფონზე, პუტინს ოლიგარქების სახით ერთ-ერთი დასაყრდენი ხელიდან ეცლება. უკრაინასთან ომი მათ უკვე ძალიან ძვირი დაუჯდათ და ეს ხარჯები მომავალში მხოლოდ გაიზრდება.
The Conversation-ში გამოქვეყნებული სტატიის ავტორების თქმით, როდესაც პუტინის კოალიციის საკმარისი ნაწილი გამოვა ბრძოლის წინააღმდეგ, რუსეთის პრეზიდენტი დილემის წინაშე აღმოჩნდება – შეწყვიტოს ომი ან რისკის ქვეშ დააყენოს საკუთარი ძალაუფლება.
უკრაინაში მიმდინარე ომის საფასურის გადახდა რუსეთის მოსახლეობასაც უწევს ინფლაციის, ეკონომიკური ვარდნისა და ბრძოლის ველზე გაღებული მსხვერპლის სახით. სტატიის მიხედვით, რუსეთის პრეზიდენტი ამაზე პასუხისმგებლობის თავიდან არიდებასა და ძალაუფლების შენარჩუნებას სამი გზით ცდილობდა და ცდილობს:
პირველ რიგში, ის იყენებს სამხედრო გაწვევის შერჩევით სისტემას. მეორე, ის აკონტროლებს სახელმწიფო მედიას, ცენზურა დაუწესა სხვა მედიაორგანიზაციებს და ზღუდავს საზოგადოებისთვის ინფორმაციის ხელმისაწვდომობას. მესამე, რადგან რუსეთში სამართლიანი არჩევნები არ ტარდება, მოსახლეობის მასობრივი მობილიზაციისა და რევოლუციის გარდა პუტინის დასამხობად სხვა გზა არ არსებობს.
რაც შეეხება უკრაინას, ის დემოკრატიული სახელმწიფოა, რომელიც აქტიურად ცდილობს ევროინტეგრაციას. აქედან გამომდინარე, მისი მოსახლეობის მზაობა, ომის ხარჯის სიმძიმე იტვირთოს, უაღრესად მნიშვნელოვანია.
რაც უფრო აძლიერებს რუსეთი შეტევით ტაქტიკას, მით უფრო დიდი საფასურის გადახდა უწევს უკრაინელ ხალხს. ამის პარალელურად, დასავლეთის მთავრობები უკრაინის მხარდასაჭერად ჰუმანიტარულ დახმარებას აძლიერებენ და მას თავდაცვაში სხვადასხვა ფორმით ეხმარებიან.
როგორც ჩანს, ეს ომი მალე არ დასრულდება, ვინაიდან დიდი დრო დასჭირდება იმას, რომ რომელიმე მხარე დანებდეს. სტატიის ავტორების განცხადებით, ან რუსეთის არმიის გადასვლა სამოქალაქო სამიზნეების განურჩევლად დაბომბვაზე უკრაინას წინააღმდეგობის შეწყვეტას აიძულებს, ან ბრძოლის ველზე დანაკარგი და შიდა ეკონომიკური პრობლემები რუსეთს ომის გაგრძელებაზე ხელს ააღებინებს.დატოვე კომენტარი
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