23 ივნისს გადამწყვეტი მნიშვნელობის რეფერენდუმი ჩატარდება, რომელიც დაადგენს, დატოვებს თუ არა ბრიტანეთი ევროკავშირს. ხმა თუ ევროპიდან გასვლას მისცეს, კატასტროფული შედეგები დადგება: ეგზისტენციალური საფრთხის წინაშე აღმოჩნდება მთელი მეორე მსოფლიო ომის შემდგომი პოლიტიკური და უსაფრთხოების სტრუქტურები, რამაც გაპარტახებულ კონტინენტს საშუალება მისცა, ომისგან ფიზიკურად დაუძლურებული მდგომარეობიდან სწრაფად გამოსულიყო და გერმანიასა და საფრანგეთს შორის მიმდინარე სამკვდრო-სასიცოცხლო მტრობა ისტორიის ნაგავსაყრელზე მოესროლა. დღეს ამ ორ ქვეყანას შორის ომი სრულიად წარმოუდგენელია.
ხარვეზების მიუხედავად, რამაც პოტენციურ უფსკრულამდე მიგვიყვანა, ევროკავშირი გასაოცრად წარმატებული პროექტია. ერთ დროს მეტად ფრთხილ სახელმწიფოებს შორის არსებული ბარიერები, დიდწილად, წაშლილია. შიდა ევროპული ვაჭრობა ყვავის. საერთო ვალუტის წყალობით, კაპიტალი ახლა შეუფერხებლად ბრუნავს იმ 19 ქვეყანას შორის, ვინც ევრო მიიღო – ზუსტად ისევე, როგორც ამერიკის შეერთებულ შტატებს შორის ბრუნავს კაპიტალი.
ბერლინის კედლის დაცემის შემდეგ ევროკავშირი უზარმაზარ ძალად იქცა აღმოსავლეთ ევროპის ოდესღაც კომუნისტური ქვეყნების ლიბერალიზაციისა და დემოკრატიზაციის საქმეში. მან ამ ქვეყნებს ბიძგი მისცა, განეხორციელებინათ უმნიშვნელოვანესი რეფორმები ქვეყნის შიგნით ფესვგადგმული პოლიტიკური თუ საზოგადოებრივი ჯგუფების მხრიდან პოტენციური წინააღმდეგობის პირობებში.
თუმცა ევროკავშირის ევოლუციაზე თუ მიდგა საქმე, უამრავი რამაა არმოსაწონი. ამ ბრიუსელში დაბანაკებული ორგანიზაციის ბიუროკრატია გამუდმებით ეხვევა კორუფციულ სკანდალებში. ევროკავშირი წვრილ-წვრილი, ხელისშემშლელი და აბსურდული რეგულაციების ვულკანად გვევლინება, რაც იქამდეც კი დადის, რომ განგვიმარტავენ, რას წარმოადგენს ბანანი. ბრიტანელებს განსაკუთრებით სძულთ სასამართლო მმართველობა, რაც ზოგადი სამართლის ბრიტანულ ტრადიციას ეწინააღმდეგება. გარდა ამისა, ევროკავშირის ანტიმონოპოლიური ქმედებები ყოველდღიურ ცხოვრებაში სულის შემხუთველი ხდება და არაფერი აქვს საერთო ინოვაციასთან.
მაღალ გადასახადებზე მეტისმეტად ბევრი ევროპელი პოლიტიკური ლიდერი და ბიუროკრატი კარგავს ჭკუას. ევროკავშირის მუდმივი თემა, განსაკუთრებით მაღალი გადასახადების მქონე საფრანგეთსა და გერმანიაში, „გადასახადების ჰარმონიზაციაა“ – სოციალურად სასურველ სიტყვებში შენიღბული პროპაგანდა, რომელიც უფრო მაღალი საგადასახადო რეჟიმების შექმნას განიზრახავს 28-ვე წევრ ქვეყანაში.
ევროკავშირის ევოლუცია საგრძნობლად გასცდა იმ მიზანს, რომლებიც მის თავდაპირველ შემქმნელებს ჰქონდათ: თავისუფალი ვაჭრობის ზონა მზარდი პოლიტიკური თანამშრომლობით. ამის მაგივრად, კონტინენტის ლიდერები ძალმომრეობით ცდილობენ რეალური პოლიტიკური კავშირის შექმნას – ერთგვარ ამერიკის შეერთებულ შტატებს ევროპაში. სამწუხაროდ, ამ ყველაფერს ისე აკეთებენ, რომ ხალხს რეალურად არ უთანხმებენ თავიანთ ნაბიჯებს, რამაც ქსენოფობიური პოლიტიკური პარტიების აღმოცენებას შეუნთო ცეცხლი.
ამჟამად, ინგლისში (და ყველგან) მზარდი რაოდენობის ევროსკეპტიკოსებში დუღილის ტემპერატურა სულ უფრო მატულობს და ამის მიზეზი იმიგრაციაა, რაც არცთუ ღონიერი ეკონომიკის პირობებში სოციალურ დაძაბულობას უარესად ამწვავებს.
მაგრამ მთავარი დამნაშავე, რომელიც ევროკავშირის ქსოვილს არღვევს, ეკონომიკური სტაგნაციაა. ლიდერებს დაავიწყდათ, რა ეხმარება ეკონომიკას ზრდაში: გადასახადების, ხარჯვისა და რეგულაციების გონივრული დოზები, განსაკუთრებით, როცა საქმე სამუშაო ძალის დაქირავებასა და დათხოვნას ეხება. 2008-09 წლის კრიზისისას, „სიმკაცრე“ ყველაზე მძიმედ კერძო სექტორს დააწვა და ამიტომაცაა, რომ ეკონომიკური გაჯანსაღების პროცესი კოჭლობით მიმდინარეობს. საკუთარი თავისადმი ამ მტრული დამოკიდებულებისა და სიბრიყვის ნიმუში კი საბერძნეთია, რომელსაც – სულ უფრო მაღალი გადასახადებისა და ხელისუფლების სიხარბის დიეტაზე მყოფს – ძლივს გააქვს თავი.
მაშ, რატომ უნდა დარჩეს ბრიტანეთი ევროკავშირში?
ბრიტანეთის წასვლა დეზინტეგრაციის ტენდენციებს შეაგულიანებს, რაც ახლა ევროკავშირს ემუქრება, და მახინჯ პოლიტიკურ და ეკონომიკურ შედეგებს მოიტანს. გამოყოფა პროტექციონალიზმისა და ექსტრემისტული ნაციონალიზმის ნაპერწკლებს ააალებს – ნაპერწკლებს, რომლებიც ახლა კვლავ ფეთქავს და ძალას იკრებს. 1930-იანები დასტურია იმისა, სადამდეც ამ ყველაფერმა შეიძლება, მიგვიყვანოს.
სწორედ დიდი დეპრესიის საშინელებებმა – სავაჭრო ბარიერების სიუხვემ და სავალუტო ომებმა – მისცა დასაბამი მეორე მსოფლიო ომის შემდგომ ნაბიჯებს, რამაც ევროკავშირის შექმნა გამოიყო ნაყოფად.
დიდი ბრიტანეთი ადგილობრივ დონეზეც იდგა დრამატული საფრთხის წინაშე: 2014 წელს შოტლანდიას შესაძლოა, დაეტოვებინა გაერთიანებული სამეფო. შოტლანდიელებს უნდათ ევროკავშირში დარჩენა, „Brexit“-მა (ანუ ბრიტანეთის ევროკავშირიდან გასვლამ) კი უკვე ახალი ენერგიით აღჭურვა სეპარატისტული ძალები. ასევე არ უნდა დაგვავიწყდეს, რომ მუდმივად არასაიმედო მშვიდობა ჩრდილოეთ ირლანდიაში, შესაძლოა, დაირღვეს.
ბრიტანელების პოტენციური გასვლით გამოწვეული საზიანო შედეგები სრულიად რეალურია. Brexit-ის მხარდამჭერებს უდარდელად სჯერათ, რომ „მბრძანებელი კუნძული“ თავისუფალ ვაჭრობას ევროკავშირის დანარჩენ 27 ქვეყანასთან კვლავაც შეინარჩუნებს. ამის ალბათობა კი ძალიან მცირეა. არაევროკავშირელი ნორვეგია და შვეიცარია საზღაურს იხდიან ამ გიგანტურ ბაზარში შესაღწევად და ევროკავშირის უმეტესი რეგულაციების დაცვაც უწევთ. სხვა ქვეყნების გაფრთხილების მიზნით, რომელთაც ასევე შეიძლება, მოუნდეთ ევროკავშირის მიტოვება, ის ბრიტანელებს განსაკუთრებულად ძვირ პირობებს დაუწესებს. გარდა ამისა, ევროკავშირს თავისუფალი ვაჭრობის საგანგებო შეთანხმებები აქვს არაერთ ქვეყანასთან მსოფლიოში, როგორიცაა, მაგალითად, მექსიკა. ბრიტანეთი, რომელიც მნიშვნელოვნადაა ექსპორტზე დამოკიდებული, იძულებული გახდება, ახალი გარიგებებისთვის, ამ ქვეყნებთან აწარმოოს მოლაპარაკებები, მაგრამ ამ შემთხვევაში, დიდი ევროპული ბაზრის ავტორიტეტული გავლენის იმედი ვეღარ ექნება.
ნაცვლად იმისა, ევროპას ზურგი აქციოს და, შედეგად, თავი გაიღარიბოს – რომ აღარაფერი ვთქვათ იმ მახინჯ ანტილიბერალურ ძალებზე, ყველგან რომ აქტიურად იკიდებენ ახლა ფეხს – ბრიტანეთმა საპირისპირო ნაბიჯი უნდა გადადგას: დარჩეს ევროკავშირში და წაუძღვეს აგრესიულ, სტაბილურ და კარგად მოფიქრებულ დიპლომატიურ კამპანიას, რომელიც ევროკავშირის რეფორმირებას მოახდენს. გერმანია და საფრანგეთი წინააღმდეგი იქნებიან, მაგრამ ლონდონს თავისუფლად შეუძლია, მხარდაჭერა სხვა ისეთ წევრებს შორის იპოვოს, როგორიცაა პოლონეთი და საერთოდ ცენტრალური და აღმოსავლეთ ევროპის უმეტესი ქვეყნები, ისევე, როგორც ბალტიის სახელმწიფოები – ლატვია, ესტონეთი და ლიტვა; ყველა მათგანს სურს ამოძვრეს იმ დამღუპველი ეკონომიკური ორმოდან, რომელშიც კონტინენტმა ჩაიგდო თავი.
ბრიტანეთმა, როგორც ცოცხალმა ნიმუშმა დანარჩენებისთვის, თავის თავზე უნდა აიღოს რეფორმების პასუხისმგებლობა და ამაყად გააკეთოს საჯარო განცხადებები თავისი ნაბიჯების შესახებ. ბრიტანეთმა უკვე გადაიღო ირლანდიის მაგალითი კორპორაციულ საგადასახადო ტარიფთან დაკავშირებით, რაც, გეგმის თანახმად, 18%-მდე უნდა დავიდეს. კიდევ მეტი შემცირებაა საჭირო. აუცილებლად შესამცირებელია აბსურდული 28%-იანი გადასახადი კაპიტალის მოგებაზე, რაც ხელს უშლის ახალი ბიზნესებისა და ხვალინდელი დღის გიგანტი კომპანიების შექმნასა და განვითარებას. საჭიროა პროპორციული საგადასახადო ტარიფის შემოღება, როგორც ეს უკვე გააკეთა ევროკავშირის რამდენიმე ახალმა წევრმა. და საჭიროა, რომ ევროკავშირის უსასრულო ოდენობის ნაირ-ნაირ მინისტერიალზე ხაზი გაესვას იმას, რაც მიღწეულ იქნა ბრიტანეთის საჯარო სექტორში: ბოლო ექვსი წლის მანძილზე ეს სექტორი 1 მილიონზე მეტი მომუშავით შემცირდა, და, შესაბამისად, გამოთავისუფლდა რესურსები ეკონომიკური ზრდისთვის.
1940 წელს ბრიტანეთმა ცივილიზაცია იხსნა. გაცილებით ნაკლებდრამატულად (და მანამ, სანამ ისეთივე უძირო უფსკრულამდე მივალთ), მას შეუძლია, ეს კიდევ ერთხელ გააკეთოს.
დატოვე კომენტარი
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