The Asian Development Bank has increased their forecast for economic growth in Georgia. While previous estimates stood at 4.5%, the ADB now forecasts 4.9% economic growth in 2018.
In addition, ADB increased the following year’s forecast to 5% (up from 4.7%). The inflation rate forecast has been reduced to 3% for 2018-2019.
ADB states that small firms, in particular, benefited from a new concessional tax regime featuring lower rates, easier compliance, and automatic refunds for excess payment of value-added tax
ADB estimates the highest growth in the region will be in Turkmenistan, with an increase of 6.2%. As for other countries in the region, the forecast is the following: Tajikistan – 6%; Armenia – 5.3%; Azerbaijan – 1.7%; Kazakhstan – 3.7%; Kyrgyzstan – 2.5%; Uzbekistan – 4.9%.
The highest inflation rate in central Asia is expected in Uzbekistan, reaching up to 16%. The inflation forecast for Armenia is 2.7%, for Azerbaijan 4.5%, for Kazakhstan 7%, for Kyrgyzstan 3.8%, for Tajikistan 6.5%, and for Turkmenistan 6.4%.
ADB forecasts a 6% GDP growth in the region this year and for the following year an increase of 5.8%. A global trade war is listed as one of the primary hindering factors as it is related to the introduction of new tariffs by the USA.
Overall, the Asian Development Bank increased the forecast of economic growth in 14 countries, and reduced it in 16 countries; however, the forecast for 15 other countries remain unchanged.