უკრაინისთვის ომის გამოცხადების შემდეგ რუსეთმა ამ დრომდე არნახული ფინანსური, პოლიტიკური და ეკონომიკური სანქციები მიიღო, რომელთაც, რეალურად, ქვეყნის ფინანსური და პოლიტიკური სისტემის ჩამოშლა შეუძლიათ. ამასთანავე, ჯერ კიდევ არსებობს უამრავი პასუხგაუცემელი შეკითხვა იმის თაობაზე, თუ რა ბედი ელის რუსულ ბიზნესს, რუს ხალხს და საერთოდ – რუსეთს, როგორც ქვეყანას.
ამ და სხვა შეკითხვებზე პასუხების მოსასმენად და რუსეთ-უკრაინის ომის ეკონომიკურ შედეგებზე, ოლიგარქების ბედსა და პუტინის რეჟიმის მოსალოდნელ ცვლილებაზე, ასევე რუსეთში პროდუქტების დეფიციტზე, სანქციებსა და რუსული საბანკო სისტემის კოლაფსზე სასაუბროდ IE Business School-ის პროფესორს, მაქსიმ მირონოვს დავუკავშირდით. ინტერვიუს მნიშვნელობიდან და მასშტაბურობიდან გამომდინარე, მას ვრცელი სახით გთავაზობთ.
ბატონო მაქსიმ, პირდაპირ შეკითხვით დავიწყებ: რამდენად ცუდი მდგომარეობაა ახლა რუსულ ეკონომიკაში?
ჯერჯერობით ძალიან ცუდი მდგომარეობა არ არის, მაგრამ მალე საშინელება მოხდება. საქმე ისაა, რომ ეკონომიკური სანქციების სრული ეფექტის დასანახად გარკვეული დრო უნდა გავიდეს. თუ, მაგალითად, რუსეთში საქონლის ექსპორტს შეაჩერებ, მყისიერ შედეგს ვერ მიიღებ, რადგან მაღაზიებში, როგორც წესი, ორი-სამი თვის მარაგი აქვთ. ამგვარად, პირველ კვირებში, პირველადი მოხმარების პროდუქტების დეფიციტი თითქმის არც ერთ სექტორში არ დაფიქსირდება.
თუმცა პრობლემები თავს მალევე იჩენს, ასე ერთ-ორ თვეში. როგორც იცით, თითქმის ყველა დასავლურმა კომპანიამ, მათ შორის McDonald’s-მა, რომელიც თითქმის ყველა ქვეყანაში ფუნქციონირებს, რუსული ბაზრის დატოვება გადაწყვიტა.
უკვე ვნახეთ, რომ რუსეთის ავტოწარმოების ინდუსტრია გაჩერებულია. Toyota-მ, Volkswagen-მა, Mercedes-მა და სხვა ქარხნებმა მუშაობა ომის გამოცხადებიდან მალევე შეწყვიტეს და მათ სხვა კომპანიებიც მიჰყვნენ: მაგალითად „ავტოვაზი“, რომელიც „ლადას“ ბრენდის მანქანებს აწარმოებს და მძიმე ტექნიკის მწარმოებელი „კამაზი“. საქმე მარტივადაა – მათ ის ნაწილები არა აქვთ, რომლებიც უცხოეთიდან შემოდის. ამრიგად, რუსული ავტოწარმოება უკვე სრულად გაჩერებულია და გვირაბის ბოლოს სინათლე სულაც არ არის – გამორიცხულია, რომ ახლო მომავალში მომწოდებლებმა მათ ნაწილები გაუგზავნონ. ამგვარად, ძალიან მალე შეიქმნება როგორც ახალი მანქანების დეფიციტი, ასევე არსებული მანქანების სერვისის პრობლემები. ხომ წარმოგიდგენიათ, ეს რას გამოიწვევს? ცხადია, რომ სულ მალე ადამიანები ტრანსპორტით გადაადგილებას ვეღარ შეძლებენ, რადგან მათი მომსახურება შეუძლებელი იქნება.
ცხადია, რომ ამ პრობლემას როგორღაც ეშველება – რუსი ინჟინრები, სავარაუდოდ, ძველი მანქანების წარმოებას დაიწყებენ, მაგრამ ამისთვისაც ძალიან დიდი დრო არის საჭირო. მე მხოლოდ ერთი მაგალითი მოგიყვანეთ, მაგრამ რეალურად ამ სცენარს ყველა სხვა ინდუსტრია გაიმეორებს.
გარდა ამისა, ჩამოიშლება რუსეთის საბანკო სისტემა. რამდენიმე დღის წინ ამ თემაზე ბლოგი დავწერე და დღეს უკვე ცხადია, რომ რუსეთმა უცხოურ ვალუტებში არსებულ დეპოზიტებზე დეფოლტი გამოაცხადა. რუსეთის მოქალაქეებს მხოლოდ 10 ათას დოლარამდე თანხის გამოტანა შეუძლიათ, მაგრამ ხშირ შემთხვევაში მათ ეს თანხაც ვერ გამოაქვთ. რეალურად ეს დიდი საბანკო კრიზისის დასაწყისია და საქმე ისაა, რომ ეს კრიზისი მხოლოდ საერთაშორისო რეზერვების გაყინვით არ არის გამოწვეული.
როგორც იცით, აშშ-მა და ევროკავშირმა რუსეთის ცენტრალური ბანკის რეზერვები გაყინეს, რაც იმას ნიშნავს, რომ მას აღარ აქვს ფული, რომელსაც კომერციულ ბანკებს ასესხებს, ხოლო კომერციულ ბანკებს არა აქვთ ფული, რომლითაც ისინი დეპოზიტართა გაზრდილ მოთხოვნას დააკმაყოფილებენ.
თუმცა ამასთანავე პრობლემა გაზრდილ საპროცენტო განაკვეთშია. როგორც იცით, რუსეთის ცენტრალურმა ბანკმა რეფინანსირების განაკვეთი 20%-მდე გაზარდა, რაც იმას ნიშნავს, რომ კომერციულმა ბანკებმა სესხები, სულ მცირე, 20%-ში უნდა გასცენ. ამასთანავე, საპროცენტო განაკვეთი მათ არსებულ სესხებზეც უნდა გაზარდონ.
ამგვარად, რუსულ ბიზნესს დიდ კრიზისი ელის და ეს მხოლოდ მწარმოებლებს არ ეხება. ადამიანები დღითიდღე გაღარიბდებიან: მათ ნაკლები ფული ექნებათ მარტივი პროდუქტებისა და სერვისების შესაძენად – თმას უფრო იშვიათად შეიჭრიან და სასტუმროებში არ დაისვენებენ. ამრიგად, კრიზისი ყველა ინდუსტრიას შეეხება, მათ შორის იმათაც, რომლებიც პირდაპირ სანქცირებული არ არის. ეს ყველაფერი დიდ ეკონომიკურ შოკს გამოიწვევს.
თავისთავად ცხადია, რომ ეს შეეხება საფონდო ბირჟასაც. როგორც იცით, უკვე ათი დღეა, რაც მოსკოვის საფონდო ბირჟა არ გახსნილა. მისი გახსნა მათ იმიტომ ეშინიათ, რომ ფასიანი ქაღალდების ფასი ნულს გაუტოლდება. ბევრ რუსულ ბანკს ეს ფასიანი ქაღალდები საკუთარ საბალანსო უწყისებში აქვთ შეტანილი და მათი ღირებულების გასწვრივ ნულს თუ დაინახავენ, გამოვა, რომ მათი კაპიტალიზაცია უარყოფითი იქნება. სწორედ ამის გამო, ცენტრალურმა განკმა გამოაცხადა, რომ კომერციულ ბანკებს შეუძლიათ, კაპიტალიზაცია 18 თებერვლის ფასებით დაითვალონ. თუმცა ეს ხომ გრძელვადიანი გადაწყვეტილება არ არის? თუ საბალანსო უწყისში ნულები გიწერია, ესე იგი შენი დეპოზიტარების გასასტუმრებლად ფული არ გაქვს.
შეიძლება ითქვას, რომ რუსული საბანკო სისტემა უკვე გაბანკროტდა. მოსალოდნელია როგორც ცენტრალური ბანკის მიერ მსხვილი სესხების გაცემა, ასევე კერძო კომერციული ბანკების ნაციონალიზაცია. სახელმწიფო ბანკები კერძო ბანკებს შეიძენენ და სულ მალე იქნება ფაქტობრივად ერთი მსხვილი სახელმწიფო ბანკი, რომელიც რამდენიმე ბრენდით იქნება წარმოდგენილი“.
ბანკების ნაციონალიზაცია ერთადერთი გამოსავალია?
ორი ვარიანტია: ნაციონალიზაცია ან გაბანკროტება.
შოკი იმდენად მძლავრია, რომ კერძო ბანკებს დეპოზიტების დაკმაყოფილება აღარ შეუძლიათ – ეს ფაქტია. ბანკომატებთან შეკრებილი ადამიანების გრძელი რიგები ხომ ნახეთ? რუსეთის ცენტრალური ბანკის გადაწყვეტილება საერთაშორისო ვალუტის მიღებაზე შეზღუდვის დაწესების შესახებ, თავისთავად, უკვე დეფოლტს ნიშნავს. ცენტრალური ბანკი საკუთარი ფულის დაბრუნებას რომ გიკრძალავს, ესე იგი საქმე დეფოლტთან გვაქვს.
თუმცა არსებობს მეორე ვარიანტი: ამ ბანკებმა თავი ბანკროტად უნდა გამოაცხადონ, რის შედეგადაც ადამიანები მილიონ ოთხასი ათას რუბლამდე დეპოზიტებს დაზღვევის სახით დაიბრუნებენ.
პროდუქტების დეფიციტის კუთხით, რუსეთი ირანს უფრო ემსგავსება თუ ჩრდილოეთ კორეას?
ირანს სანქციები ორმოცი წლის წინ დაუწესეს, მაგრამ მათ ჯერ კიდევ საბაზრო ეკონომიკა და ნავთობის დიდი მარაგები აქვთ. ირანმა როგორღაც მოახერხა საბაზრო ეკონომიკის შექმნა, რომელიც უკანასკნელი ორმოცი წლის განმავლობაში შედარებით სტაბილურია.
ჩრდილოეთ კორეაში ცენტრალურად დაგეგმილი ეკონომიკაა, რაც ფაქტობრივად იმას ნიშნავს, რომ იქ ეკონომიკა საერთოდ არ არის. ადამიანები შიმშილით კვდებიან, მათ პირველადი მოხმარების პროდუქტები არა აქვთ.
ამ გაგებით, რუსეთი ორივესგან განსხვავებული იქნება. საქმე ისაა, რომ ბოლო ოცდაათი წლის განმავლობაში რუსეთში საბაზრო ეკონომიკა იყო – ადამიანებს მაღალი ხარისხის საკვები, ტანსაცმელი და ტექნოლოგიური პროდუქტები ჰქონდათ. ერთია, როცა არასდროს არაფერი გქონდა და მეორე, როცა ყველაფერი გქონდა და აღარაფერი გაქვს.
ჩემი აზრით, არსებობს სცენარის განვითარების ორი შესაძლო ვარიანტი. პირველი – და იმედი მაქვს, რომ ის გამართლდება – არის ის, რუსეთში პუტინის რეჟიმს დაამხობენ, ახალ ქვეყანას შექმნიან, შეზღუდვების უმეტესობას მოხსნიან და რუსეთს გადარჩენის შანსი გაუჩნდება.
მეორე სცენარის მიხედვით, პუტინი უკრაინიდან ჯარს გაიყვანს, ქვეყანას ჩაკეტავს, ხოლო რუსეთი არსებობას გააგრძელებს, როგორც საბაზრო ეკონომიკის მქონე ჩინეთის სატელიტი სახელმწიფო. ჩინეთი რუსულ ბუნებრივ წიაღისეულს დიდი ფასდაკლებით შეიძენს და სანაცვლოდ რუსეთში უხარისხო საქონელს გაგზავნის. ამ შემთხვევაში რუსეთი ვერაფერს იზამს, რადგან ხარისხიანი ნაწარმის ამერიკიდან და ევროპიდან შეძენას ისინი ვერ შეძლებენ. ამრიგად, რუსეთი კიდევ უფრო მცირე ზომის საბაზრო ეკონომიკის მქონე ქვეყანა გახდება, რომელიც სრულად იქნება დამოკიდებული ჩინეთზე.
მოდი, ნავთობსა და გაზზე ვისაუბროთ. პრეზიდენტმა ბაიდენმა და პრემიერ-მინისტრმა ტრუდომ რუსულ ნავთობზე ემბარგო დააწესეს. თქვენი აზრით, რა შედეგს გამოიღებს ეს გადაწყვეტილებები და შეუერთდებიან თუ არა მას ევროკავშირის წევრი სახელმწიფოები?
ჩემი აზრით, მთავარ პრობლემას უშუალოდ ემბარგო კი არ წარმოადგენს, არამედ ქვეყნის ანტიპიარი, ე.წ. „ქენსელ კულტურა“. BP-მა, Shell-მა და სხვა დიდმა კომპანიებმა რუსეთის ბაზრიდან გასვლა ჯერ კიდევ მაშინ დაიწყეს, როცა ნავთობსა და გაზზე სანქციები დაწესებული არ იყო. მათთვის რუსეთი იმ ნებისმიერი აფრიკული ქვეყნის დონეზე დგას, რომელშიც ადამიანებს კლავენ – ამიტომაც ბაზარი მათ ბაიდენის მიერ სანქციების გამოცხადებამდე დატოვეს.
მთავარი პრობლემა ისაა, რომ რუსული კომპანიები საკუთარი ნავთობის გაყიდვას საერთოდ ვეღარ შეძლებენ – ევროპული კომპანიები მას სანქციების დაწესების გარეშეც არ იყიდდნენ.
ევროკავშირმა უკვე განაცხადა, რომ მუშაობას იწყებს რუსულ გაზზე დამოკიდებულების შემცირების მიმართულებით – თუ არ მეშლება, გადასვლა ამერიკულ და ყატარულ გაზზე სურთ.
სულ მალე, რუსული ნავთობისა და გაზისთვის ყველა ბაზარი ჩაიკეტება და მოსალოდნელია, რომ ბუნებრივი წიაღისეულის გატანას რუსეთი ჩინეთში და რამდენიმე სხვა ქვეყანაში შეძლებს, ისიც ძალიან დიდი ფასდაკლებით. თუ, შენი გაზის ყიდვა არავის სურს, მაგრამ ჩინეთისნაირი მყიდველი მაინც მონახე, ჩინეთი მას, რა თქმა უნდა, უდიდესი ფასდაკლებით იყიდის, რაც რუსული კომპანიების ექსპორტიდან მიღებულ შემოსავალს და, შესაბამისად, ქვეყნის ბიუჯეტს შეამცირებს.
ოლიგარქებზეც ვისაუბროთ. თქვენი აზრით, გაამართლებს თუ არა მათ მიმართ დაწესებული პერსონალური სანქციები და შეეცდებიან თუ არა ისინი რეჟიმის შეცვლას?
სანქციები იმუშავებს, ცხადია, მაგრამ მათი შედეგი მყისიერი არ იქნება. ჩემი აზრით, ასეთი სანქციების დაწესება დასავლეთს ოდნავ დააგვიანდა. არაერთი რუსი ოპოზიციონერი, მათ შორის ნავალნი, პუტინთან დაახლოებული პირებისთვის ასეთი ტიპის სანქციების დაწესებას დასავლეთისგან მრავალი წლის განმავლობაში ითხოვდა. მათთვის რომ დაეჯერებინათ, სანქციების შედეგს უკვე ვნახავდით.
თუკი ოლიგარქებს საზღვარგარეთ ფულის დახარჯვას აუკრძალავ და იახტებს წაართმევ – აიძულებ, რომ ერთმანეთს შეახვედრო და დააფიქრო, მხარი ოპოზიციას ხომ არ დაუჭირონ ან სამხედრო გადატრიალება ხომ არ მოაწყონ პუტინის რეჟიმის დასამხობად. ამ ყველაფერს დრო და მომზადება სჭირდება – ეს მყისიერად ვერ მოხდება. ამიტომაც ვფიქრობ, რომ ეს სანქციები დასავლეთს წლების წინ უნდა დაეწესებინა.
ახლა ეს სანქციები მაინც იმუშავებს, თუმცა მყისიერ შედეგს ვერ მივიღებთ. წარმოიდგინეთ, რომ ეს ადამიანები შეიკრიბებიან და გადაწყვეტენ, რომ პუტინს რამე უქნან. ამ ყველაფერს დრო უნდა. შეგვიძლია ვივარაუდოთ, რომ ისინი მესენჯერებსა და ტელეფონებს არ ენდობიან, ანუ შეხვედრისთვის ადგილი უნდა მონახონ და მოკავშირეები ჯარში იპოვონ. აბა, დერიპასკა და აბრამოვიჩი დანებს ხომ არ აიღებენ ხელში პუტინის მოსაკლავად? თან, ახლა ის ბუნკერში ცხოვრობს და ძალიან დაცულია.
კარგი იქნება, ეს რომ მოხდეს, მაგრამ ამ ყველაფერს რამდენიმე თვე სჭირდება – ასეთი სანქციები მყისიერ შედეგს არ იძლევა.
ფიქრობთ თუ არა, რომ სანქციებისგან თავის დასაღწევად ოლიგარქები კრიპტოვალუტებს გამოიყენებენ?
არა, გამორიცხულია. ჯერჯერობით, კრიპტოვალუტის გამოყენება მხოლოდ მაშინ შეგიძლია, როცა მცირე რაღაცას ყიდულობ. თუმცა, ამ შემთხვევაშიც, ნებისმიერი კრიპტოტრანზაქცია, ადრე თუ გვიან, ტრადიციულ ფინანსურ სისტემაში ხვდება – აი, მაგალითად, ვილას თუ ყიდულობ, საჯარო რეესტრში უნდა მიხვიდე, სადაც მარეგულირებლებს ვერ გაექცევი. იგივეა თვითმფრინავის ბილეთის შეძენის შემთხვევაში – ბილეთს ხომ შენი სახელი და გვარი აწერია. სასტუმროს შემთხვევაშიც ასეა.
რეალურად, კრიპტოვალუტების ფიატ ვალუტად გადასახურდავებლად აუცილებლად გჭირდება ფიატ ვალუტაში გახსნილი ანგარიში, რადგან ადგილების უმეტესობაში კრიპტოვალუტებით გადახდა დაშვებული არ არის. თუმცა შესაძლებელია, რომ ისინი ფულის შენახვის დროებით საშუალებად იქნას გამოყენებული.
ალბათ იცით, რომ ბრიტანულმა კერძო სკოლებმა უკვე გამოთქვეს წუხილი იმის თაობაზე, რომ მათი ბიუჯეტი შემცირდება – სანქცირებული ადამიანები საკუთარი შვილების სწავლის გადასახადის დაფარვას ვერ ახერხებენ, რადგან მისი გადახდა კრიპტოვალუტებით უბრალოდ შეუძლებელია.
კიდევ ერთი მნიშვნელოვანი თემა – შვეიცარიის პოზიციაა, რომელმაც ნეიტრალიტეტი დაარღვია და ევროკავშირის სანქციებს შეუერთდა. რას ფიქრობთ?
შვეიცარიის ეს გადაწყვეტილება ევროკავშირისა და აშშ-ის მხრიდან წამოსულმა ზეწოლამ განაპირობა. ალბათ იცით, რომ ამგვარად მოქცევა შვეიცარიას ახლა არ დაუწყია. მრავალი წლის წინ მათ საბანკო საიდუმლოების შენახვის წესი უკუაგდეს და ვალდებულნი გახდნენ, რომ სხვა ქვეყნის მოთხოვნის საფუძველზე ინფორმაცია გაასაჯაროონ – ოციოდ წლის წინ ასეთი რამ შეუძლებელი იყო.
ალბათ ისიც იცით, რომ შვეიცარიამ აბრამოვიჩს ქვეყანაში ცხოვრების ნებართვა არ მისცა. როგორც წესი, მდიდარი ადამიანები უფრო რბილი საგადასახადო პოლიტიკის გამო შვეიცარიისა და ლუქსემბურგისნაირ ქვეყნებში გადადიოდნენ, ხოლო ეს ქვეყნები მათ ბინადრობას აძლევდნენ. შვეიცარიამ კი აბრამოვიჩს ბინადრობის უფლება არ მისცა.
ცხადია, რომ ეს დასავლეთის წნეხმა განაპირობა და ეს ეხება არა მხოლოდ შვეიცარიას, არამედ ყველა იმ სახელმწიფოს, სადაც ოლიგარქები საკუთარ ფულს ინახავენ. კვიპროსიც კი დღეს რუსული ფულისთვის იმაზე გაცილებით სახიფათოა, ვიდრე ოცი წლის წინ იყო. ეს გლობალური ტრენდია.
ბატონო მაქსიმ, ჩინეთზე მინდა გკითხოთ. ცოტა ხნის წინ ჩინეთის საგარეო საქმეთა მინისტრმა აშშ-ს მოუწოდა, წყნარ ოკეანეში სამხედრო ალიანსი არ შექმნას. ცხადია, ამ მოწოდებაში, პირველ რიგში, ტაივანი იგულისხმება. მას ისიც დასძინა, რომ სიტუაცია ტაივანში რადიკალურად განსხვავდება სიტუაციისგან უკრაინაში. ამ კონტექსტისა და რუსეთის დაღმავლობის გათვალისწინებით, რა პოლიტიკურ და ეკონომიკურ პოზიციას დაიჭერს ჩინეთი?
ჩემი აზრით, ჩინეთი ერთადერთი ქვეყანაა, რომელიც ამ ომით იხეირებს. უკრაინა დანგრეულია, მაგრამ დარწმუნებული ვარ, რომ ევროპული ქვეყნების დახმარებით ის მალევე წამოდგება ფეხზე. რუსეთი უკვე სრულად განადგურდა და მას არავინ დაეხმარება, ასე რომ, ის გაცილებით უფრო ცუდ დღეში ჩავარდება.
ჩინეთი კი ამ ომით დიდ უპირატესობას მიიღებს. ჩინეთმა უკვე განაცხადა, რომ ის იმ რუსული კომპანიების წილებს შეიძენს, რომლებიდანაც უცხოური კომპანიები გადიან – შეიძლება ითქვას, რომ ამ წილებს ისინი თითქმის არაფრის ფასად იყიდიან. ხომ ხედავთ, რუსეთის ბაზარს რამდენი კომპანია ტოვებს? ისინი ყველაფერს კაპიკებად ყიდიან. ამგვარად, მისთვის ძალიან მნიშვნელოვან ბაზარზე საკუთარ არსებობას ჩინეთი თითქმის უფასოდ გააღრმავებს.
ამასთანავე, ამ ომმა მათ მიმართ აშშ-ის მხრიდან წამოსული წნეხი შეამცირა. მას მერე, რაც ომი დაიწყო, დასავლეთისთვის მთავარ ბოროტებად რუსეთი იქცა და ამ სანქციების ფონზე, ადამიანები ჩინეთიდან მომავალ საფრთხეს ნელ-ნელა დაივიწყებენ.
კიდევ ერთი მიზეზი არის ის, რომ დასავლეთს სჭირდება არხი, რომლითაც რუსეთთან კომუნიკაციას დაამყარებს. როგორც ვხედავთ, დასავლური კომპანიები რუსეთის ბაზარს ტოვებენ. ამასთანავე, დარწმუნებული ვარ, რომ სულ მალე, დასავლეთის ქვეყნები რუსეთიდან საკუთარ მოქალაქეებსაც გამოიყვანენ. ამასწინათ გავიგე, რომ აშშ-მა საკუთარ მოქალაქეებს რუსეთის დატოვების რეკომენდაცია მისცა და თუ ისინი ქვეყანას ახლა არ დატოვებენ, აშშ-ის საელჩო მათ ვეღარ დაეხმარება.
ამგვარად, რუსეთსა და დასავლეთს შორის არსებული კავშირები საკმაოდ მალე გაწყდება, მაგრამ დასავლურ ქვეყნებს მაინც დასჭირდებათ არხი, რომლითაც პუტინთან კომუნიკაციას შეძლებენ – არ დაგავიწყდეთ, რომ რუსეთს ბირთვული იარაღი აქვს. დასავლეთსა და რუსეთს შორის ხიდის ფუნქციას ჩინეთი შეასრულებს და აშშ-ს მისი დაცვა მოუწევს, რადგან მას არ სურს, რომ ერთდროულად ორი მტერი – ჩინეთი და რუსეთი ჰყავდეს. ჩემი აზრით, ჩინეთი ამერიკისთვის საფრთხედ რომ არ გარდაიქმნას, შეიძლება მათ დაწესებული სანქციებიც კი გაუუქმონ.
ცოტა ხნის წინ ტაივანის შესახებ მკითხეთ – ჩემი აზრით, ამ ომით ირიბად ტაივანიც იხეირებს, რადგან ჩინეთმა მკაფიოდ დაინახა, თუ რა შეიძლება დაემართოს ჩინეთის ეკონომიკას, თუკი ის ტაივანში შეიჭრება. რასაკვირველია, დასავლეთს ეს გაცილებით უფრო ძვირი დაუჯდება, მაგრამ ჩინეთმა დაინახა, რომ რუსული ეკონომიკის დასანგრევად დასავლეთმა ყველა შესაძლო სანქცია დააწესა. ჩემი აზრით, ჩინეთი ხვდება, რომ ტაივანში შეჭრა მას ძალიან, ძალიან ძვირი დაუჯდება. ასე რომ, ჩინეთი ვინმეს დაპყრობას თუ გადაწყვეტს, სჯობს, რუსეთი დაიპყროს – მას ეს სრულიად უფასოდ გამოუვა და თან, წინ არავინ აღუდგება.
ეყოფა თუ არა პუტინს ფული იმისთვის, რომ ამ ომის მიზანს, უკრაინის ე.წ. „დენაციფიკაციას“ მიაღწიოს?
რეალურად, საქმე ფულში სულაც არ არის – დარწმუნებული ვარ, რომ ომის დასაფინანსებლად ფინანსების მობილიზება პუტინს საერთოდ არ გაუჭირდება. უკვე ვნახეთ, რომ რუსულ ჯარს საქმე ცუდად აქვს. მათი თავდაპირველი მიზანი უკრაინის ორ-სამ დღეში დაპყრობა იყო, მაგრამ უკვე ორი კვირა გავიდა და რუსეთის ჯარი უკრაინის ერთ დიდ ქალაქსაც კი არ აკონტროლებს.
ჩემი აზრით, ტრადიციულ ომში პუტინი უკვე დამარცხდა და აღარ იცის, სამომავლოდ რა გააკეთოს. ასეთი ომის წარმართვა ძალიან ძვირად ღირებულია არა მხოლოდ ფულის, არამედ პიარის კუთხითაც – მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ რუსეთში აიკრძალა ყველა დამოუკიდებელი მედიასაშუალება და დაიბლოკა სოციალური ქსელები, ინფორმაცია მაინც ვრცელდება. ადამიანები ხვდებიან, რომ რუსულმა ჯარმა დიდი დანაკარგები იწვნია, ჯარისკაცების დედებმა იციან, რომ მათი შვილები კვდებიან – შესაბამისად, ამ ყველაფერს ძალიან დიდი უარყოფითი შედეგი ექნება.
ერთ-ერთი მიზეზი იმისა, თუ რატომ იყო ჩეჩნეთის პირველი ომი ასეთი არაპოპულარული, გახლავთ ის, რომ რუსებმა დაინახეს, თუ რამდენი რუსი შეეწირა მას. უკრაინასთან ომიც ასეთია – ის სრულად აბსურდული ომია. პუტინის მიზანი არავის ესმის, ალბათ არც თვითონ მას. რეალურად, ეს ომი ძალიან არაპოპულარულია, რომელშიც რუსეთი უკვე დამარცხდა.
ამ ომის ყველაზე დიდი საფრთხე არის ის, რომ მასში გასამარჯვებლად, შესაძლებელია, პუტინმა ტაქტიკური ბირთვული იარაღის გამოყენება გადაწყვიტოს. თუკი პუტინი იგრძნობს, რომ ამ ომს აგებს, სახლში კი არ წავა, არამედ ყველაფერს გააკეთებს, რომ ვითარება შემოაბრუნოს. ცხადია, რომ „ყველაფერში“ ტაქტიკური ბირთვული იარაღის გამოყენებაც იგულისხმება.
თუმცა, ამას ხომ პუტინის რეჟიმისა და მთელი ქვეყნის განადგურება მოჰყვება? წავა თუ არა ის ამ რისკზე?
კი, აუცილებლად წავა. აქ საქმე რუსეთში კი არ არის, არამედ პუტინში. ის თითქმის 70 წლის მენტალურად დასნეულებული ადამიანია, რომელსაც რუსები არ ადარდებს – ეს მან უკვე არაერთხელ დაამტკიცა. აი, პანდემიის დროს, მაგალითად, რუსეთს სიკვდილიანობის ერთ-ერთი ყველაზე მაღალი მაჩვენებელი ჰქონდა მსოფლიოში. რატომ? იმიტომ, რომ პუტინს ადამიანების დახმარებისთვის ფული არ დაუხარჯავს. თან, ეს ყველაფერი იმის ფონზე, რომ რუსეთის ბიუჯეტი გადაჭარბებული იყო. დღეს ლამის ყველა ქვეყნის ბიუჯეტი დეფიციტშია, მაგრამ რუსეთის ბიუჯეტში სიჭარბე აღინიშნებოდა. ადამიანები კვდებოდნენ, პუტინი კი მათ არ ეხმარებოდა და ფულს ვიღაცების ჯიბეებში ანაწილებდა.
ის სულ არ ფიქრობს იმაზე, რომ ბირთვულ იარაღს თუ გამოიყენებს, ბევრი რუსი მოკვდება, როცა დასავლეთი საპასუხო იერიშს მიიტანს.
თუმცა აქ კიდევ ერთი საკითხია: არ ვარ დარწმუნებული იმაში, რომ თუკი პუტინი უკრაინის წინააღმდეგ ბირთვულ იარაღს გამოიყენებს, დასავლეთი რუსეთზე საპასუხო იერიშს მიიტანს, რადგან ფორმალურად, ეს არ იქნება შეტევა „ნატოს“ წევრ ქვეყანაზე. თან, პრეზიდენტმა ბაიდენმა და სხვა ლიდერებმა მკაფიოდ განაცხადეს, რომ ამ კონფლიქტში ჩართვა არ სურთ. ამგვარად, ეს ნიშნავს იმას, რომ თუკი პუტინი ერთ ან ორ უკრაინულ ქალაქზე ბირთვულ იერიშს მიიტანს, „ნატო“ რუსეთს პასუხს არ გასცემს.
თქვენი აზრით, პუტინის რეჟიმი ამგვარი სანქციებისთვის მზად იყო?
არა, ცალსახად არა. მეტიც, წამყვანი რუსული ბანკების ხელმძღვანელებს წარმოდგენაც კი არ ჰქონდათ იმის თაობაზე, რომ პუტინი უკრაინას ომს გამოუცხადებდა. ამგვარად, მზად არავინ იყო – მათთვის ეს დიდი შოკი აღმოჩნდა. ყველამ იცოდა, რომ პუტინი დონეცკისა და ლუჰანსკის რესპუბლიკების ე.წ. „დამოუკიდებლობას“ აღიარებდა – რუსეთის მთელი ფინანსური სისტემა ემზადებოდა იმ სანქციებისთვის, რაც აღიარებას მოჰყვებოდა, მაგრამ ომისთვის არავინ იყო მზად.
მესმის, რომ მკვლევარი ხართ და, როგორც წესი, მკვლევარებს პროგნოზების გაკეთება არ უყვართ, მაგრამ მაინც გკითხავთ: რას უნდა ველოდოთ ამ ომისგან მომავალში, როგორც ეკონომიკურად, ასევე ფინანსურად?
მომავალი ძალიან გაურკვეველია. როგორც გითხარით, არსებობს მოვლენათა განვითარების რამდენიმე სცენარი. თუ ვითარება გაგრძელდა ისე, როგორც დღეს და იმ დაშვებით, რომ პუტინი ბირთვულ ომს არ დაიწყებს, რუსეთს უკან დახევა და ქვეყნის ჩაკეტვა მოუწევს.
თქვენ საქართველოდან ხართ და ალბათ ნახეთ, თუ რამდენი ადამიანი ჩავიდა საქართველოში რუსეთიდან ბოლო რამდენიმე კვირაში. ეს ადამიანები პენსიას ან სახელმწიფო სოციალურ დახმარებას არ იღებენ – ისინი გადასახადების გადამხდელები არიან. ამგვარად, ბოლო ორი კვირის განმავლობაში რუსეთმა ძალიან ბევრი მაღალგანვითარებული გადასახადების გადამხდელი დაკარგა.
როგორც უკვე ვთქვით, სახელმწიფო შემოსავალი რადიკალურად შეიკუმშება, ასე რომ, პუტინს დასჭირდება ადამიანები, რომლებიც ბიუჯეტს შეავსებენ – ამისთვის ის ქვეყანას დაახლოებით ისევე ჩაკეტავს, როგორც ეს საბჭოთა კავშირში იყო. საერთაშორისო ვალუტების შეძენა ისედაც უკვე აიკრძალა. რუსეთის ეკონომიკა დაუბრუნდება იმ ნიშნულს, რომელსაც ის დაახლოებით 30 წლით წინ იკავებდა. ბრენდების ქვეყნიდან გადინების გამო, ადამიანები მხოლოდ მარტივ ნივთებს შეიძენენ და სავსებით შესაძლებელია, რომ გარკვეულ ფენებში შიმშილი დაიწყოს, რადგან საბაზისო პროდუქტებთან მიმართებით ჰიპერინფლაციაა მოსალოდნელი.
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