IMF 2021 წლის ბოლოსთვის მშპ-სთან მიმართებით საქართველოს ვალის 63.8%-იან მაჩვენებელს პროგნოზირებს

IMF 2021 წლის ბოლოსთვის მშპ-სთან მიმართებით საქართველოს ვალის 63.8%-იან მაჩვენებელს პროგნოზირებს

საერთაშორისო სავალუტო ფონდი (IMF) 2021 წლის ბოლოსთვის მშპ-სთან მიმართებით საქართველოს ვალის 63.8%-იან მაჩვენებელს პროგნოზირებს, მაშინ როდესაც ქვეყნის ბიუჯეტის მიხედვით, ვალის დონე წელს 60.1%-ზეა განსაზღვრული.

რაც შეეხება მომავალ წლებს, IMF-ის პროგნოზით, 2022-ში საქართველოს ვალის ნიშნული 61.04%-ზე იქნება, 2023 წელს – 59.159%-ზე, 2024 წელს – 57.248%-ზე, 2025 წლისთვის – 55.512%-ს, ხოლო 2026 წლისთვის – 53.978%-ზე.

რაც შეეხება მთავრობის ბიუჯეტში ჩადებულ პროგნოზს, 2022 წელს მთავრობა ვალის 58.6%-იან მაჩვენებელს ელოდება, 2023-ში – 57.8%-იანს, ხოლო 2024-ში – 57.6%-იანს.

საქართველოს ვალის ზრდის შესახებ დასმულ შეკითხვას გუშინ IMF-ის ახლო აღმოსავლეთისა და ცენტრალური აზიის დეპარტამენტის უფროსმა ჯიჰად აზურმა უპასუხა და აღნიშნა, რომ საქართველოს საგარეო ვალი გაიზარდა, რადგან კორონავირუსის შოკი დიდი იყო.

ჯიჰად აზურის თქმით, საქართველო ღია ეკონომიკის ქვეყანაა, აქ ტურიზმი მნიშვნელოვანი სექტორია. ამიტომაც ნორმალურია, რომ ეს კრიზისი  ეკონომიკურ ვითარებაზე გავლენას ახდენს.

„საქართველოს მთავრობამ 2020-ში მნიშვნელოვანი ნაბიჯები გადადგა. რა თქმა უნდა, ჯანდაცვის კუთხითაც, თუმცა ასევე ეკონომიკური მიმართულებით. მათ არაერთი ფისკალური ზომა წარადგინეს და ფინანსური ზომები მიიღეს. ცენტრალურმა ბანკმა გონივრულად გამოიყენა გაცვლითი კურსის მოქნილობა, რათა შეემცირებინა საქართველოს ეკონომიკაზე შოკის გავლენა. რა თქმა უნდა, ამან გამოიწვია ვალის გაზრდა. თუმცა, მიუხედავად მისი ზრდისა, საქართველოს ვალის მოცულობა კვლავ სტაბილურია. როგორც იცით, საქართველომ დაასრულა არსებული პროგრამის გადახედვა, რომელმაც ქვეყანას მისცა შესაძლებლობა, კრიზისში დამატებით ჰუმანიტარულ და ჯანდაცვის საჭიროებებს უპასუხოს“, – აღნიშნა აზურმა.

მას შექმნილ ვითარებაში საქართველოს პრიორიტეტად მიაჩნია მუშაობის გაგრძელება ორ მნიშვნელოვან „ფრონტზე“. „შეინარჩუნოს მაკროეკონომიკური სტაბილურობა და ეს მოითხოვს შენარჩუნდეს ის, რაც საქართველომ უკვე დაიწყო ფისკალური კუთხით შემოსავლების წყაროების გაფართოების თვალსაზრისით. ასევე, ხელახლა მოახდინოს დანახარჯების პრიორიტეტიზება, რათა კაპიტალის დანახარჯებს მისცეს დამატებითი სივრცე და ასევე, ინფრასტრუქტურის გაუმჯობესება, რაც დაეხმარება ზრდის აღდგენას“, – განაცხადა აზურმა.

მისივე თქმით, მეორე მხრივ, ზომებმა, რაც საქართველოს ცენტრალურმა ბანკმა წარადგინა გაცვლითი კურსის მართვის კუთხით, შეამცირა ეკონომიკაზე გარე შოკების გავლენა:

„მნიშვნელოვანია, ინფლაცია დაბალ ნიშნულზე იქნეს შენარჩუნებული. ეს საქართველოს სტაბილურობის ერთ-ერთი მნიშვნელოვანი ელემენტია“.

მან ასევე აღნიშნა, რომ საქართველოში ეკონომიკური აღდგენა ორ პრიორიტეტზე იქნება დაფუძნებული. ეს არის ეკონომიკის დაზარალებულ მიმართულებებზე ზრუნვა. და ამ კუთხით მნიშვნელოვანია ისეთი სექტორების დახმარება, როგორიცაა ტურიზმი, ხოლო მეორე პრიორიტეტი უნდა იყოს მომავლის სექტორებში ინვესტირება. „ტექნოლოგიები, აღდგენა, რაც ეკონომიკის გამწვანებაზეა დაფუძნებული – საქართველოს წინსვლის შესაძლებლობებია“, – დასძინა მან.

მისივე თქმით, ბოლო ელემენტი, რაც საქართველოს ეკონომიკას დაეხმარება, არის ევროკავშირთან კავშირების გაძლიერება, ასევე მეზობელ ქვეყნებთანაც.

ცნობისთვის, IMF-ი 2021 წელს საქართველოში ეკონომიკურ ზრდას 3.5%-მდე ამცირებს, ხოლო 2022 წელს 5.8%-იან ეკონომიკური ზრდას პროგნოზირებს. აქვე შეგახსენებთ, რომ მიმდინარე წლის იანვარ-თებერვალში ეკონომიკა 8,3%-ით შემცირდა. აღნიშნულის ფონზე ოპტიმისტურ სცენარს ინარჩუნებს საქართველოს მთავრობა, რომელიც ბიუჯეტის დამტკიცების პერიოდში 4.3%-იანი ეკონომიკური ზრდის პროგნოზს არ ცვლის.

დატოვე კომენტარი

406 კომენტარი

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