The impact of Russian sanctions on Georgian economy - Galt & Taggart forecast

The impact of Russian sanctions on Georgian economy - Galt & Taggart forecast

Georgia does not have to deal with Russian sanctions for the first time. After the embargo of 2006, Georgia’s economy has become more diversified. Free Trade Agreement was signed with China and the European Union. G & T writes in Georgia economic review, that expected Russian sanctions will further diversify the economy of the country, including such large markets as China and the European Union.

According to the investment bank, 9.3% of Georgia’s GDP is depending on Russia. Namely, export, tourism, FDI and money transfers.

“Exports to Russia have increased especially since 2013, as well as the number of Russian tourists. As for the money transfers, the EU has replaced Russia in recent years, and investments from Russia are not big”.

As a result, G&T points out that Russian sanctions will have an impact, but not as much as after the 2006 embargo.

Investment Bank’s forecasts are as follows:

–  In the II Q of the year, the number of visitors from Russia will be reduced by 4.7%. At the same time, the increased number of visitors from other countries will not affect the final result.

–  In 2019, tourism revenue from Russia will be reduced by $200 million. In the first half of the year, income from tourism will reach $ 1.9 billion, which is a decrease of $300 million

–  As for the possible embargo of wine, G & T points out that at the end of the first half of the year, export of Georgian wine to Russia will be reduced to $58 million.

As for economic growth – forecast it is 4.5%.

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